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Starts and Sits – Week 11

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By Brian Mackowick (@BMaaaaac)


Week 10 Results

Let’s start off with a recap of how Frank Scandurro (@Frank_Scandurro), Joey DeFeo (@jedfeo91) and myself (@Bmaaaaac) fared with our week 10 Start and Sit recommendations. Check out the results below:

QB Starts: Andy Dalton (QB27); Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB20)

RB Starts: Aaron Jones (RB6); Duke Johnson (RB19)

WR Starts: Tyler Boyd (WR35); Larry Fitzgerald (WR29)

TE Starts: Austin Hooper (TE3); Evan Engram (TE16)

 

QB Sits: Jared Goff (QB11); Mitch Trubisky (QB1)

RB Sits: Joe Mixon (RB30); David Johnson (RB1)

WR Sits: Golden Tate (WR72); Devin Funchess (WR55)

TE Sits: O.J. Howard (TE39); Jared Cook (TE14)

Somewhat of a mixed bag for us in week 10. Our biggest win of the week on the start side came from Aaron Jones who posted by far his best week of the year and finished at RB6. Austin Hooper also stood out, as he finished at TE3 on the back of his first 10-catch game of the season. We also had some solid calls with sit recommendations of guys like Joe Mixon, Golden Tate, Devin Funchess and O.J. Howard. Unfortunately, we also recommended sitting Mitch Trubisky and David Johnson, both of whom finished atop their respective positional ranks on the week.

For week 11 we’ve got another six teams on bye with the Bills, Dolphins, Patriots, Jets, Browns and 49ers all off for the week. Hopefully some of this week’s recommendations will help fuel your team into the playoffs!

Frank and Joey have the week off, so you’ll have to rely on my advice this week… Here are my week 11 Starts and Sits!

 

Quarterbacks

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Ben RoethlisbergerYou probably won’t find Big Ben topping anyone’s QB rankings this week as he travels to Jacksonville to face the Jaguars this coming Sunday. But, I have faith. Jacksonville has given up the 8th fewest points to opposing quarterbacks thus far this season, along with the 2nd fewest total yards allowed. The Jags also held Mahomes to zero passing touchdowns in week 5. However, over their last two games (weeks 8 and 10), the Jags have given up a combined 571 passing yards (6th most over those two weeks) and 6 passing touchdowns (tied for 2nd most in those two weeks). The Jags are likely getting one of their top CBs back this week with A.J. Bouye returning to practice, but I feel confident plugging Big Ben into my starting lineups. Fire him up as a back-end QB1. 

Marcus MariotaMariota has been heating up as of late, posting overall QB7 and QB6 performances in weeks 9 and 10, respectively. The Titans are at home this week with the Andrew Luck and the Colts coming to town. The Colts have allowed 54 combined points over their last two games against the likes of Jacksonville and Oakland. I expect Mariota will keep that scoring trend going, and I see Mariota as a fringe QB1 this week.

 

SIT

Kirk CousinsCurrently sitting at QB13, Cousins is coming off a bye week that was preceded by his worst passing game of the year as he put up just 164/1/1 in week 9, along with a fumble. On the road this week and facing a ferocious Bears pass rush that welcomed back Khalil Mack in week 10, Cousins will be under pressure more frequently than he’s used to. While Cousins might be playing catch-up in this game, which could bode well for his fantasy stats, I’m banking on the Bears defense keeping the Vikings in check this week. 

Ryan Fitzpatrick – Blasphemy! Who could ever recommend sitting FitzMagic and that glorious beard! I’ve personally had Fitz as a start the last two weeks he’s been back as the starter, but that changes this week on the road against the Giants. The G-Men have quietly allowed the 11th fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. Furthermore, they’ve allowed no more than one passing touchdown to opposing quarterbacks in their last three matchups, which included a road tilt against Matt Ryan. I love FitzMagic as much as the next guy, but I’d look at other options this week.

 

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Running Backs

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Leonard Fournette – Following four straight missed games, Fournette finally returned last Sunday to face the Colts and promptly provided his fantasy owners with the production they were hoping for when they drafted him in the first round. On 29 total touches, Fournette produced 109 scrimmage yards and two scores placing him at RB7 for the week. At home this week against a Steelers defense that gave up 138 scrimmage yards and three scores to McCaffrey this past week, I’m betting on Fournette remaining in the RB1 discussion.

Alex Collins – There are some question marks surrounding this game as it’s currently unclear who will start at quarterback for the Ravens. If Lamar Jackson starts, I’d certainly expect more run-pass-option play calling. This could benefit Collins a bit as the defense has to pay attention to Jackson’s ability to run as well. In either case, though, Collins is at home against the Bengals this week. I’m anticipating a more balanced game script this week than we saw in week 9, a game in which Collins saw just nine rushes and the Ravens threw on 70% of their plays. Plug Collins in as a good bet for RB2 production this week.

 

SIT

Marlon Mack – This likely comes off as recency bias given Mack’s 12/29/0 line against the Jaguars this past week, but Marlon Mack could find himself in a similar situation at home against the Titans in week 11. Having held their last three opponents to a combined 44/133/1 line (with the one TD coming on a one-yard goal-line dive from James Develin), I’m expecting Indy to win this game through the air. Mack is on the RB2/RB3 fringe for me this week as I’m not expecting a return to his elite production from weeks 7 and 8 just yet.

Dalvin Cook – After five weeks on the sidelines, Cook burst back onto the scene in week 9 against the Lions with 10 carries, one of which went for 70-yards. That run undoubtedly excited patient fantasy owners who’ve held on to the 2017 star in hopes of a late-season return to the elite RB ranks. Coming off the bye, however, the Vikings are headed to Chicago to face a Bears run defense that has allowed the 2nd fewest fantasy points to running backs this season. In fact, the Bears still haven’t given up a single rushing touchdown! Cook’s usage in the passing game could help sustain a flex-worthy floor, but owners shouldn’t be anticipating a jump back into the RB1 tier in week 11.

 

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Wide Receivers

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Corey DavisSee: Marcus Mariota. Vegas is anticipating the Titans putting up close to 30 points this week, and I think Davis will be a big factor in making that happen. Last week against the Patriots, Corey Davis hauled in seven of ten targets for 125 yards and a score. Indy has held up relatively well against wideouts this season, but I think Davis and Mariota are heating up a bit. I think Davis finds the end-zone for the second week in a row here, and finds himself on the WR1 fringe.

Alshon JeffreyAfter two down weeks in a row, Alshon could return to WR1 production this week on the road against the Saints. New Orleans continues to allow the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season, and that shouldn’t change this week with Carson Wentz and company coming to town. Wentz is on a six-game streak of having 275+ passing yards and 2+ passing touchdowns – this kid is the real deal. Alshon is a good bet to return to the end-zone this week in what should be one of the highest scoring games this week.

 

SIT

Allen RobinsonLast week, Robinson put up a monster stat line of 6/133/2 at home against the Lions. As a Bears faithful, I sincerely hope that happens again this week, but going up against top CB Xavier Rhodes might keep him closer to the WR2/WR3 range. Minnesota’s defense has allowed the 4th fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season, and have allowed just two passing touchdowns over their last four matchups. Keep Robinson on the bench this week if you can afford to do so.

Doug BaldwinThis week the Seahawks face off against the Packers for Thursday Night Football. On a short week, and against Aaron Rodgers, I expect the Seahawks (who lead the league in rushing yards per game at 152.2) will try to control the game tempo by keeping the ball on the ground, and out of Rodgers’ hands. Baldwin does lead the team in targets over the last four games, and if the Packers can get ahead early Baldwin will see plenty of looks. Still, having not exceeded 5 grabs or 77 yards in his last three games with zero trips to the end zone, I don’t anticipate Baldwin stepping into the WR2 range this week.

 

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Tight Ends

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Eric Ebron/Jack Doyle – I’m guessing you’ll see these guys listed as sits by many other industry writers, but Ebron and Doyle are starts for me in week 11. The Colts tight-end duo face a Titans defense this week that has yet to give up a single touchdown to the tight-end position this season. Furthermore, only one tight end has posted a 100+ yard receiving game against the Titans this season: Zach Ertz in week 4. All that said, though, the Titans really haven’t faced any other significant competition from the position. I’m expecting Andrew Luck to fair better than Tom Brady did this past Sunday, though, and we know Luck has a penchant for utilizing his tight ends. In fact, the Colts tight ends have only failed to find the end zone in one game this season, week 3. Thus far in 2018, Luck has targeted tight ends on 29.4% of his passes which is good for 2nd most in the NFL behind only the Eagles. What really stands out to me, though, is 57.7% (!!!) of Luck’s touchdown passes have gone to tight ends. I haven’t found the statistics on that figure, but I have to believe that is most in the NFL this season by a decent margin. While on paper the matchup looks daunting for Ebron and Doyle, keep them in your lineups this week due to their significant red-zone usage.

Evan Engram – This recommendation is purely matchup based. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have given up the 2nd most points to tight ends this season, and are traveling to New York to play the Giants this week. In a game that Vegas expects to be both relatively high scoring (over/under currently sits at 52) and close (NYG favored by just 1 point), I can see Engram getting into the red zone for his third score of the season.

 

SIT

Kyle Rudolph – Seeing a trend with the Vikings here? I’m surprised to see that Rudolph currently sits at TE11 on the season given he has scored just two touchdowns and has yet to exceed 72 receiving yards in any game. That obviously speaks volumes about the state of the tight-end position in general this year. In the three games prior to last week’s bye for the Vikings, Rudolph put up a combined 7/83/0 line against the Jets, Saints and Lions. This week, Rudolph is on the road against the Bears, and I’m expecting the lack of production to continue. Keep Rudolph on the bench, if you haven’t dropped him yet.

 

Be sure to check for our week 12 Start/Sit column to see the week 11 results! Follow me on Twitter @BMaaaaac, follow our podcast @F3Pod, and look out for more articles in the future on www.TheFFFranchise.com!

Brian Mackowick